National Grid Gas Transmission: Critical Infrastructure Extreme Value Analysis (EVA)

National Grid Gas Transmission (NGGT) own, manage and operate the UK high-pressure gas national transmission system (NTS). The NTS is a gas superhighway that connects the UK, balancing supply and demand on a day-to-day basis to make gas available when and where it is needed – providing heat to around 80 per cent of the UK’s 28 million homes.

Business Modelling Associates (BMA) worked with NGGT to develop an advanced systems model to robustly quantify and evidence the requirement for significant investment in critical infrastructure at risk of low probability high consequence events.

Prescriptive analytics combined with next generation systems modelling was used to explore intervention scenarios from a systems perspective taking into account system design and configuration management. Risk adjusted net present value analysis, scenario analysis and systems modelling were used to support the business case to the economic regulator, Ofgem, resulting in the receipt of over £110m additional funding.

National Grid Gas Transmission: Critical Infrastructure Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) Case Study
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